By 2025, nearly one in 10 medium- and heavy-duty (MD-HD) trucks sold will run on natural gas, according to a new report from Frost & Sullivan.
The report says energy price volatility, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, tighter emission norms, and the emergence of noise-pollution-free zones are generating a plethora of opportunities for alternate truck powertrains. External influencers such as urbanization, geopolitics, incentives and technology advancements are all combining to boost the MD-HD compressed natural gas (CNG) and LNG truck market.
“Compressed ignition engines with high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) technology are gaining traction and are expected to garner wide OEM support to reach sizeable scalability by 2025,” says Frost & Sullivan Mobility Industry Analyst Saideep Sudhakar. “The NG market is witnessing the first wave of consolidation across integrators and tank manufacturers. Japan, Russia, India and Indonesia are emerging as the next big adopters of NG vehicles.”
The report finds that China, Europe and North America will account for approximately 83.4% of global NG truck sales in 2025, and Asia will benefit from the oversupply of LNG. Although the market is set to enjoy a double-digit growth rate, the report notes the higher cost of acquisition, low oil prices and lack of government subsidies could give commercial fleet owners a pause. In due course, the report continues, technological advancements and improved scalability will help OEMs lower the initial cost of vehicles and encourage fleet owners to buy NG trucks.
“Cummins, FPT and Weichai will be key Tier 1 engine suppliers shaping the future of the NG market across developed markets, with an extensive NG engine portfolio for a wide variety of duty cycle applications,” comments Sudhakar. “While CNG trucks currently hold a higher percentage of the market share, LNG may dethrone CNG by 2025 due to the greater penetration of long-haul trucks.”