China's plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% from 2012 to 2017, surpassing 152,000 units sold annually by 2017, according to a new report from Pike Research.
However, despite China's various related programs and incentives, Pike Research notes these figures show PEV production will fall ‘well short’ of the government's goal of manufacturing 500,000 PEVs annually by 2015.
‘The Chinese government initially overestimated consumer demand for electric vehicles, and has made adjustments to its incentive policies,’ says research director John Gartner.Â
Specifically, China is adjusting its programs away from battery electric vehicles to be more inclusive of hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Still, the government will find it difficult to implement its policies, Gartner says. The country's fragmented regional governments and the close relationships between local governments and local vehicle manufacturers have created problems in implementation, especially for vehicle and technology standardization, he explains.
Competing interests, such as companies producing vehicles with proprietary technologies, have already delayed the release of China's Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020), making it difficult for companies to plan their investment in EV production and infrastructure, the report adds.
Nevertheless, Pike Reserach says, China's ambitions will provide a huge boost to EV development worldwide in the long run.