A recent study from Navigant Research forecasts that more than 35 million electric vehicles (EVs) will be in operation globally within the next decade, with market growth being driven largely by high petroleum-based fuel costs and government incentives for vehicle electrification.
The company expects global compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 9.6% for hybrid EVs, 28.5% for plug-in hybrid EVs and 29.3% for battery (all-electric) EVs. Japan and the U.S. will represent the largest markets for hybrids, with sales reaching just over 1 million and 1.1 million in 2022, respectively. North America will be the largest market for plug-in hybrid EVs and battery EVs until 2017, at which point Asia Pacific will become the largest market for these vehicle classes.
Navigant notes that its forecasts are influenced by a number of assumptions:
- Increasing vehicle availability: New makes and models of EVs will be widely available in North America, Western and Eastern Europe, and Asia Pacific, but limited elsewhere.
- Government influence: Governments are playing play a key role in the plug-in hybrid and battery EV markets by both offering purchase incentives and regulating the fuel economy and emissions of light-duty vehicles.
- Decreasing hybrid and plug-in hybrid EV prices: Battery pack costs, which can accountÂ or as much as half of plug-in hybrid and batter EV costs, are expected to decrease during the forecast period (2013-2022). Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are anticipated to see 10% and 26% declines in pack costs by 2020, respectively, while battery EVs equipment costs will likely remain flat.
- Gasoline and diesel prices: Petroleum-based fuel prices are anticipated to climb throughout the forecast period. Navigant Research forecasts the global sales weighted average retail gasoline and diesel prices will increase at 4.2% and 3.4% CAGRs between 2013 and 2022.
- Economics and the overall light-duty vehicle market: Sales of light-duty vehicles overall have suffered in many regions due to the economic downturn of recent years. The North American and Asia Pacific markets are projected to rebound in 2014.
For more information about Navigant's study, click here.