Electric vehicles (EVs) could make up 15% to 35% of total new vehicle sales globally in 2040, according to a new report from IHS Markit, a critical information, analytics and solutions provider.
As reported, these findings are part of the new research project, Reinventing the Wheel, that will be conducted over the first half of 2017. IHS Markit says this major multi-client research initiative will provide a system-wide analysis of the new reality of transportation and the potential implications for the oil, gas, automotive, electric power and chemical industries.
“The key question is whether we are approaching a transformative shift akin to the first decade of the 20th century, when the internal combustion engine, cheap gasoline, bicycle technology and mass production combined to usher in the automotive age,” says Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “Converging developments along multiple tracks are leading us to focus on this important question.”
Although EVs constitute a small percentage of the world’s vehicle sales and are just 1% of the on-road fleet today, sales in 2016 are up more than 1,000% since 2010 – a trend that IHS Markit expects to continue, with the potential to make EVs more than one-third of the new vehicle sales in 2040.
“Significant advances in battery technology, financial support from governments, regulations and values of millennials will be key factors leading to increases in electric vehicle adoption,” says Jim Burkhard, study co-director and chief of research at IHS Markit for crude oil markets and energy scenarios.
The report says EV share in individual markets will vary based on these factors. For instance, in China and Europe – regions where policies are favorable to EVs – IHS Markit estimates that EVs could comprise over half of new passenger vehicle sales in 2040.